Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near four-year war in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
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The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.

The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Brittney Church
Brittney Church

Elara Vance is a seasoned political analyst with a focus on UK affairs, providing sharp commentary and data-driven insights.