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This surely should not continue. The logic defies sense for it to persist. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Against the Odds

Aston Villa entered Saturday's top-flight clash at Chelsea aiming for a club record of eleven consecutive wins, matching runs set in the distant past. For the opening hour, achieving it seemed highly unlikely, as the hosts dominated proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added to their advantage. But, Chelsea are vulnerability with a lead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a baffling knack of snatching wins on the road after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post following his first effort was saved by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he nodded in the decisive goal with a deft header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. The forward might believe some fortune was overdue, and there's no question the first goal involved a large slice of luck. At the moment, however, fortune seems to be favoring Villa.

The Statistics Behind an Unlikely Streak

The last nine of these eleven straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have managed a clean sheet in just one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been better in just six of those fixtures, and in two of those, the advantage was minimal. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This formula should not, but observers have been saying that for some time, and Villa continue winning. The key question is whether their results will eventually align with their performances or if their level of play can improve to match the results.

This should not be possible, but everybody's been stating that for a while and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Trait: Belief

Fighting back is not merely a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points when trailing than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those have been secured this term, fifty percent more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored 9 goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• First, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, in part, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at influencing games with his use of the bench.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea had the better of the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery made a triple change. Ollie Watkins came on for Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement in behind caused problems. Amadou Onana and Sancho also came on, strengthening the center and adding the width they had eschewed earlier.

Chelsea had 10 shots to Villa's none before the changes; following them, Villa had eleven opportunities to Chelsea's 4. By the final whistle, Villa were commanding and could have won by a greater margin. Once again, Chelsea boss Maresca seemed unable to react as the game slipped away; the sense remains that he is better at devising a game plan with preparation time than adapting in the moment.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a happy habit of individuals producing pieces of sensational quality to alter games. Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish home has become a seasonal theme. It was Malen who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. Right now, it's not always the entire team playing brilliantly, but sufficient players within it delivering to earn the victories.

The Road Ahead

Can they maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they have to be viewed as part of the title race, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a major test of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this term.

Arsenal have since put together their own run of narrow victories, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both teams – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their title credentials.