Are You Not Being Entertained? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
The Wolves squad managed a decrease of 10 goals from open play compared to at this stage the previous campaign.

One of the biggest stories of England's top flight this campaign has been the decline of scoring in open play and the way teams are netting increasingly from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

Comparing scoring methods to the initial 11 matches last season, we see 39 fewer scored in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer in total.

If we look at the broader view, the number of shots clubs are making reveal an incredible drop of 370 in open play than this time previously.

And despite the notable jump in set-play finishes, there have actually been just two more attempts generated from them outside of spot-kicks, indicating how effective teams have been at finding ways to convert from dead-ball chances.

Goal Averages Reveal an Interesting Narrative

The 301 goals scored in the first 110 fixtures up to now averages out at nearly 2.75 goals per game, if this persists for the whole season would be the smallest for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).

But just under 200 goals coming in open-play equates to 1.78 each match and is tracking to be the smallest for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).

That campaign also marks the only Premier League campaign to witness goals scored at a higher rate from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).

Which Teams Bear the Most Responsibility?

When it comes to scoring from open-play, Wolves have experienced the most significant drop, netting only four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than at this stage last season.

Outside of Wolverhampton, the EPL's fall in goals from open play is very much a London phenomenon, with five of the London's seven clubs scoring a minimum of five fewer goals from open play than the prior season.

Honestly, this is primarily due to their scoring lots of scores at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of their genuine struggle to convert in open-play this season.

At the same time Manchester City have experienced the most significant jump, with all but one of the 23 they've scored to date arriving in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Comparing the promoted teams with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off champions the Black Cats have netted three extra goals in open-play than Southampton did in their opening 11 matches on their way to the drop last season.

Regarding scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have recorded the biggest increase, with each team making up for the reduction of five scores that they've scored in open play with the same number from set-pieces.

Manchester United have netted twice as many scores from set-plays as they managed in the 11 games the previous campaign before the manager assumed control, while the Black Cats again have been more effective at scoring than the club they replaced that went down.

City seem unaware of the trend about increasing scoring from set-plays, because they've recorded a reduction of three than last season, similar to Forest, although that might be down to the altered approach they have tried to implement.

League-Wide Trends

Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – are the current campaign's primary examples by scoring fewer scores from open play and increased from set-plays, while City are the only side to buck the trend so far by doing the exact opposite.

It will be interesting to observe if teams carry on to depend greatly on set-plays as the season goes on or if they find again their all-round creativity and start netting increased totals in open-play also.

Brittney Church
Brittney Church

Elara Vance is a seasoned political analyst with a focus on UK affairs, providing sharp commentary and data-driven insights.